It may be the conclusion on the part of those looking at the Final 4 odds that the UConn Huskies will go as far as the talents of Kemba Walker take them during these, the “championship rounds.” Inasmuch as he has taken them within two steps of a national title, he has done okay thus far. On Saturday Walker will lead his team against the Kentucky Wildcats in the national semi-final game, in which they are a two-point underdog in the Final 4 odds. Let’s examine the role of the UConn superstar.
Final 4 Odds – National Semi-Finals
Kentucky Wildcats (29-8 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) vs. Connecticut Huskies (30-9 SU, 21-12 ATS)
Live at Reliant Stadium
Houston, TX
Saturday, April 2 — 8:49 PM ET
TV: CBS
Final 4 Odds:
Kentucky -2
UConn +2
Total 140
Yes, some people get the general impression that UConn’s chances in the Final 4 odds begin and end with Kemba Walker. And indeed he averages 23.9 points a game. There is no question that throughout the season, opposing coaches knew that if you wanted to throw in a monkey wrench that would toss the UConn offense completely off-balance, it was to dedicate all resources to making Walker take bad shots.
In some of those games, it worked. Louisville, in a pair of regular season games, held Walker to ten field goals in 33 attempts. Against St. John’s he was just four of 16 as the Huskies lost in the Garden by 17 points. In UConn’s fist loss of the season, at Pittsburgh, he was wild, hitting just ten of 27 shots. He has taken 300 more shots than any of his teammates in the UConn offense, which comes out to almost nine more per game. As a dog to Kentucky in Final 4 odds, John Calipari’s team will try to take him off his game AND make him take a lot of bad shots.
Of course, the wild card here is the way Walker penetrates and gets to the line; something he has done with great effectiveness. Walker averaged almost eight free throw attempts per game, and he happens to be an excellent free throw shooter, hitting 82% of his chances. If you look at the last ten games, he has had ten or more free throws in six of them. That’s important when he is not having a particularly good shooting night. And it improves those Final 4 odds for the Huskies, who will try and clear a path for him to penetrate.
For Walker, a former New York City high school standout who was a teammate of Momo Jones, who he faced off against in the West Regional finals, it was a matter of taking on more of a scorer’s role on a team that had lost the likes of Jerome Dyson, Stanley Robinson and Gavin Edwards from last year’s squad. On a young team, someone had to supply offense.
For those who looked upon him as a “chucker” without conscience, we offer a 2-to-1 assist-turnover ratio and 5.3 rebounds a game, which ranks second on the squad. Walker also averages almost two steals a game, and if he can get it done on “the other end,” that will definitely improve the Final 4 odds of this team.
Walker did enough to be named a first-team All-America by the Associated Press this season, but he really got himself some added respect when he led his team to five wins in five days in the Big East tournament, an event grueling enough that Bob Knight, now an ESPN commentator, suggested that it might be more difficult than winning the NCAA Tournament. During that five-day period, Walker hit 41 of 87 shots, but also hit 46 of 54 shots from the charity stripe. He averaged 26 points a game, and has improved upon that in the NCAA’s, with almost a 30 ppg average. Other weapons have emerged, like Jeremy Lamb, but in the opinion of many, the team’s chances of cashing in at +220 in the Final 4 odds hinge on what Kemba does.
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