NFL-The Power of Three
Although there are neither stats nor trends compiled for the upcoming NFL betting season, that doesn’t mean there are plenty of useful betting trends provided at Sportsbook.com.
Two of our favorite trends heading into Week 1 of the NFL season are as follows:
1) Divisional favorites of 3 points or less are 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) in Week 1 since 2000.
2) Favorites of exactly 3 points are 29-10 SU & 21-12-5 ATS (64%) in Week 1 since 2000.
Four Week 1 divisional matchups are currently hovering right around that magic number of three, give or take half a point, and the road team is favored in all of them:
Indianapolis at Houston
Houston has their sights set on their first ever playoff berth as the Colts remain heavy favorites to win the AFC South. The Texans can score in bunches, and they come off a season in which they lead the NFL in passing. They’ve lost six straight to Indianapolis, but five of those games were within eight points. The Colts, a perennial playoff team, went 7-1 ATS & 7-1 SU on the road in the 2009 regular season; that one loss was a meaningless Week 17 game in which Peyton Manning was pulled in the second quarter.
Play on: Indianapolis -2.5
Miami at Buffalo
Miami acquired Pro Bowl wide receiver Brandon Marshall to improve a pass offense that ranked 23rd in yards per attempt last season. The Phins are a 3-point road favorite, having gone 10-2 ATS on the road against conference foes over the last two years. Buffalo hopes that new head coach Chan Gailey can breathe life into a dismal passing game that ranked 30th in the NFL last season. The Bills are actually 5-2 ATS & 5-2 SU over the past two Septembers, losing only at New England and against New Orleans in that span.
Play on: Miami -3
Dallas at Washington
Mike Shanahan will try to resurrect the Redskins after a 4-12 season in which they went 0-6 in divisional games. The Cowboys finally got over the playoff drought that had stricken the franchise for 15 years, beating Philly in a wildcard game last January—the proverbial monkey may be off Tony Romo’s back. These teams don’t like one another, and whether McNabb is healthy enough to start will obviously have a big impact on how this one plays out. The road team is on a 5-1 ATS run in this head-to-head series.
Play on: Dallas -3.5
San Francisco at Seattle
San Francisco is the favorite to win the NFC West, coming off an 8-8 season with six losses by a touchdown or less. The Niners were among the league leaders defensively in several key categories last season and are 14-7-4 ATS under Mike Singletary. Off a 5-11 season, new head coach Pete Carroll has overhauled Seattle’s roster. The Seahawks hope QB Matt Hasselbeck can recover from back-to-back dismal seasons while question marks linger throughout an offense full of backup-caliber talent.
Play on: San Francisco -3
There you have it sports fans, now head over to Sportsbook.com for your Week 1 NFL betting pleasure. After placing your bets, be sure to enter the $50,000 Survivor Pool and the $100,000 Perfect Parlay.