MMA Betting: Penn vs. Fitch
The MMA experts at Sherdog asked 49 professional fighters and trainers which man would win the main event for this Saturday’s UFC 127 card in Sydney, Australia. Out of that poll, 25 picked Fitch, 17 sided with Penn, and seven couldn’t decide one way or the other. That’s in sync with the MMA betting lines; Fitch is the –185 favorite, with Penn at +155.
MMA fighters may be experts in their craft, but they’re prone to the same biases as the betting public. Penn is a very popular figure in the Octagon – the fiery Hawaiian is a former champion in both the Lightweight and Welterweight divisions, and he’s coming off a 21-second flash knockout of Matt Hughes at UFC 123. Penn stands in sharp contrast to Fitch, a wrestler and a grinder who has won by unanimous decision in six of his last seven fights. This is about as red state-blue state as you can get.
Although both Penn and Fitch have considerable merit, the clash of styles may keep this match from being very competitive. Penn could score another early victory using his speed and power, but to do so, he’ll have to overcome Fitch’s size and suffocating grappling. Only one fighter has managed to do that since 2003: Georges St-Pierre, who holds victories over both men.
Our expanding list of MMA prop bets paints an even gloomier picture for Penn. Fitch is priced at –130 to win this three-round fight by a decision. If you’re a Penn supporter, there might be more betting value in taking him at +350 to win inside the distance. As they say, he has the puncher’s chance.
Here are the most recent MMA odds and results for the eight fighters at the top of the card.
Welterweight: B.J. Penn (+155) vs. Jon Fitch (–185)
November 20, 2010: Penn (–215) over Matt Hughes (+195) by first-round KO
August 28, 2010: Frankie Edgar (+250) over Penn (–300) by unanimous decision
April 10, 2010: Edgar (+725) over Penn (–1100) by unanimous decision
August 7, 2010: Fitch (–140) over Thiago Alves (+110) by unanimous decision
March 27, 2010: Fitch (–320) over Ben Saunders (+260) by unanimous decision
December 12, 2009: Fitch (–800) over Mike Pierce (+500) by unanimous decision
Middleweight: Michael Bisping (–325) vs. Jorge Rivera (+250)
October 16, 2010: Bisping (–240) over Yoshihiro Akiyama (+190) by unanimous decision
May 29, 2010: Bisping (–190) over Dan Miller (+160) by unanimous decision
February 20, 2010: Wanderlei Silva (–190) over Bisping (+160) by unanimous decision
March 31, 2010: Rivera (+190) over Nate Quarry (–230) by second-round TKO
October 24, 2009: Rivera (+130) over Rob Kimmons (–165) by third-round TKO
April 1, 2009: Rivera (–175) over Nissen Osterneck (+145) by split decision
Lightweight: George Sotiropoulos (–515) vs. Dennis Siver (+315)
November 20, 2010: Sotiropoulos (–245) over Joe Lauzon (+220) by second-round submission
July 3, 2010: Sotiropoulos (–190) over Kurt Pellegrino (+155) by unanimous decision
February 21, 2010: Sotiropoulos (+205) over Joe Stevenson (–225) by unanimous decision
November 13, 2010: Siver (+110) over Andre Winner (–140) by first-round submission
June 19, 2010: Siver (+145) over Spencer Fisher (–175) by unanimous decision
March 31, 2010: Ross Pearson (–210) over Siver (+185) by unanimous decision
Welterweight: Chris Lytle (–270) vs. Brian Ebersole (+210)
September 25, 2010: Lytle (–145) over Matt Serra (+130) by unanimous decision
July 3, 2010: Lytle (–250) over Matt Brown (+190) by second-round submission
February 21, 2010: Lytle (–120) over Brian Foster (+110) by first-round submission
January 29, 2011, LGIOP: Ebersole (NL) over Hamish Robertson by first-round TKO
July 10, 2010, Impact FC: Ebersole (NL) over Carlos Newton by unanimous decision
April 15, 2010, Fight Force: Ebersole (NL) over Martin van Staden by third-round submission
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