UFC 127 Betting Picks
There are truly two fighters in the sport that I love watching grind it out, and Jon Fitch is one of them. The American born bone grinder is a moderately heavy favorite in UFC 127 betting picks at -200 against the slight underdog odds of B.J. Penn, and both are itching to prove their welterweight worth in a division owned by Georges St-Pierre. Will Penn or Fitch prove that they are the next deserving contender to the welterweight championship?
It’s easy to froth at the mouth about Penn’s underdog odds in UFC 127 betting only because of his name value. He’s B.J. Freaking Penn after all, one of the greatest fighters in UFC history.
The main issue against Penn is that we don’t know how much of a dominant force he is at this particular weight class. Sure, he was champion in this division back in 2004 but that seems like eons ago.
Penn has left the lightweight division at least temporarily to allow Frankie Edgar to spread his wings, which is noble in its right but also serves to indicate that Penn isn’t sure where his place is in the sport anymore. Arguably the greatest lightweight fighter in mixed martial arts history, Penn earned a massive KO win over Hughes in a welterweight finale against Matt Hughes. That victory gave Penn a 2-1 SU record against the iconic Hughes.
The lead up to that fight, for Hughes at least, seemed to be a “what does he have left” fight for both men. Hughes was touring what I like to refer to as the Masters Circuit of the UFC (much like Randy Couture, Hughes has been in fights against a strange run of contenders, has-beens and pretenders just to use his name value to attract business to a fight card). To be honest, we don’t really know what Penn is capable of against a guy like Fitch, who has proven his worth in the welterweight division time and again for the last two years.
B.J. Penn (16-7-1) vs. Jon Fitch (23-3)
Saturday, February 26th — Sydney, Australia — 10:00pm EST
UFC 127 Betting Lines: Penn +165 / Fitch -200
Fitch’s odds at UFC 127 are favored because he’s become a virtually impossible fighter to finish off. At 5-0 SU since his last title fight against St-Pierre in the summer of 2008, Fitch has clinched victories by unanimous decision in his last five fights. That is part of the reason why I enjoy him so much, but it’s also a reason that people don’t like watching Fitch.
Fans prefer knockouts and submissions. I get that. Thirteen of Fitch’s victories have come by decision, and only five of them have come by KO, so fans tend to tune out because they know that he’s just going to engage in a marathon instead of a favorable sprint. As such, Fitch has never been awarded fight, knockout or submission of the night awards during his extended tenure in the UFC.
The fact that Fitch fails to garner serious love from fair weather fans shouldn’t necessarily deter anybody when they make their UFC 127 betting picks this weekend. Penn’s biggest problem is work ethic during a match. He’s a momentum guy, and if things are not going his way, he tends to lose all motivation. The reason that Fitch is the favorite is because he isn’t dismayed by things like losing a round, or having a bad few minutes in the middle of a match.
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